That still leaves the Democrats needing to win all three toss-up
seats (including the one current Democrat-held seat), flip the four states that only lean GOP right now, plus pick up another seat that's more firmly held by Republicans.
Drew Gerhold correctly answered five toss-ups
, Spencer Cowger and Aurora Marlow each answered two.
Republicans hold the Arizona Senate 17-13, but at least three seats are considered toss-ups
. Similarly, Republicans in the Wisconsin Senate have only a three-seat advantages, so a shift of two would put Democrats in charge for the first time since 2010.
Among the toss-ups
, there is one (only one) bright spot.
Both parties acknowledge that the Senate contest is a toss-up
that will be affected by the presidential election.
Portland-based Republican pollster Bob Moore said the Democrats' unprecedented single-year voter-registration gains have played a big role in moving Oregon from the toss-up
category to a likely source of support, and seven electoral college votes, for Obama.
The Georgia Tech researchers have also been able to show that very close games are often toss-ups
, meaning that the better team wins barely more than half the time.
The Cook Political Report, a well-respected journal, had the GOP still with a slight advantage in the House during mid-October, with another 19 House seats rated as "toss-ups
The New York Times 2006 Election Guide covers Senate, House and Governor races across the country, with individual profiles and evaluations of which seats are safely in the hands of one party, which are leaning toward one party, and which are toss-ups
. The site has a map on which users click on a district or state to get information.
With close races expected in the many of the 33 gubernatorial and 36 senate races, and 50 to 60 house seats considered toss-ups
, the general consensus is that more than $1.5 billion will be spent on TV political advertising in 2006.
"We will go after them next session," he said, with plans to devote resources to a half dozen state house races deemed toss-ups