A 50% probability for the three toss-up
seats makes sense.
Drew Gerhold correctly answered five toss-ups
, Spencer Cowger and Aurora Marlow each answered two.
Among the toss-ups
, there is one (only one) bright spot.
To illustrate why this is a double discount, consider the typical toss-up
case in which the plaintiff has received borderline care that reasonable experts are as likely to condemn as to excuse.
Thirty-four Senate seats are up for election but only a handful of races are considered competitive and just seven are rated toss-ups
by the (http://cookpolitical.com/senate/charts/race-ratings) Cook Political Report : Nevada, which currently is in Democratic hands, and Republican-held seats in Florida, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Florida, Indiana, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Missouri are especially close, with (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/2016_elections_senate_map.html) Real Clear Politics labeling the races as toss-ups
. Illinois and Wisconsin are leaning Democrat, while Ohio and Iowa are leaning Republican.
"(https://twitter.com/JoeNBC) @JoeNBC : If you think it's a toss-up
, let's bet.
Indeed, out of the eight states deemed as Romney/Obama "toss-ups
" by The New York Times, seven (Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin) are running busted budgets into next year.
Those races are all considered toss-ups
, although Democrats seem better positioned in Nevada and Arizona.
That lead shrinks to 49 percent to 44 percent in districts that ABC labeled "toss-ups
Many races for governor are toss-ups
, and Democrats are fielding more candidates than at any time in the last 40 years, including record numbers of women.
Culberson is up against Democratic nominee Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, and the Cook Political Report categorizes both his and Sessions' districts -- where attorney Colin Allred is vying to unseat the 11-term congressman -- toss-ups