subjective probability estimate

subjective probability estimate

Intensive care A probability, estimated for an individual Pt, of dying or of having another defined outcome, based on the personal knowledge and experiences of the prognosticator–eg, a physician with previous Pts. Cf Objective probability estimate.
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Thus, the agent's update has the property that forgetting the occurrence of an event in the past will decrease the subjective probability estimate.
However, when one has a number of similar assessments, calibration can be evaluated by comparing how close the subjective probability estimate is from the observed relative frequency of occurrence of the event being assessed.
When forming subjective probability estimates of a horse's chance of winning, it is conceivable that bettors rely on data concerning PP bias from the previous year.

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