subjective probability


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sub·jec·tive prob·a·bil·i·ty

a fair statement of the odds that a rational, well-informed person would give or take for the outcome of an experiment. The experiment may be unique and not rationally understood (precluding both theoretically sound predication and empiric experience). The formulation is applicable to experiments that have been carried out but the outcome unknown. (For instance, a certain statement about the gender of the fetus early in pregnancy is established but perhaps not accessible until amniocentesis can be done.) Unlike personal probably, the subjective probability should be the same from all competent counselors in possession of the same evidence.

probability

the basis of statistics. The relative frequency of occurrence of a specific event as the outcome of an experiment when the experiment is conducted randomly on very many occasions. The probability of the event occurring is the number of times it did occur divided by the number of times that it could have occurred. Defined as:$$\hbox{p}={\hbox{x}\over (\hbox{x+y})$$

where
p = probability, x = positive outcomes, y = negative outcomes.
prior probability
estimation of the probability that a particular phenomenon or character will appear before putting the patient to the test, e.g. testing the probable productivity of a patient by testing its forebears.
subjective probability
the measure of the assessor's belief in the probability of a proposition being correct.

subjective

perceived only by one examiner and not necessarily by any other examiner.

subjective probability
see subjective probability.
References in periodicals archive ?
Data points for SPQ (right column) refer to median estimations of subjective probability of obtaining delayed rewards (expressed in percentages and divided by 100) with the AUC computed as areas under the lines that connect these points (lower row).
The normative nature of this intuition is highlighted by the findings that the bias was not mediated by the participants' subjective probability assessments or by their confidence in those assessments (Experiments 2a-b), was considerably more pronounced in the realm of losses than in the realm of gains (Experiments 2a-c), persisted when the similarity between the two types of evidence could not be ignored (Experiment 2c), and exhibited even when subjects were confronted with the logical inevitability of the inference (Experiment 4).
Finally, in order to explore the extent to which bettors account for the changing PP bias over the period, LR tests, similar to those discussed in "Modeling Bettors' Subjective Probability Judgments" are conducted for each of the years.
77) and who attached a higher subjective probability to living about another 10 years (OR = 5.
They begin by explaining theories such as subjective probability and paradoxes in probability theory, then apply probability theory to statistics and explaining the Bayesian approach to statistics, the design of experiments, causation and causal inference and the randomness of computations.
Probabilities Aleatoric Epistemic Objective Relative Frequency Logical Probability Subjective Subjective Probability Social Probability
For example, individuals might use the subjective probability of being infected rather than population-based epidemiological data (Mehrez and Gafni, 1987, Auld, 2003, Karni, 2003, Mullahy, 1999).
A second step then uses survey forecasts to estimate the Radon-Nikodym derivative of investors' subjective probability, denoted [P.
i], the subjective probability that the choice of the alternative will lead to outcome i; [U.

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