The subjective probability
of an accident is based on (1) information used by insurers, (2) other information available to insurers but not used, and (3) private information.
Specifically, it will be interesting to see whether expressions of complete unawareness about specific programs ("I have never heard of it"), tend to map into expressions of complete belief uncertainty or ambiguity (No idea about the chances) for the corresponding programs--rather than uncertainty characterized by a subjective probability
distribution (e.g., Camerer and Weber 1992, Ellsberg 1961, and others); and whether expressions of awareness accompanied by limited knowledge (I have heard the name only), tend to map into expression of partial belief uncertainty or ambiguity (Unsure about the chances), and vice versa.
The primary aim of the present study was to compare delay discounting, probability discounting, and subjective probability
of obtaining future rewards in three groups: cigarette smokers, e-cigarette users, and never smokers.
Although Zamir, Ritov, and Teichman found that subjects' subjective probability
assessments did not mediate the differences found between the direct and inference conditions, we sought to reexamine their results when the amount of evidence in the two conditions was equalized, hence the information about evidence reliability cannot be interpreted differently in the two conditions.
Although strict Bayesians maintain that all uncertainty and ignorance can be represented with subjective probability
, Wagner expresses some reservations about Bayesian learning despite its attractive features.
It is just not possible to talk about 'the experimental probability' or 'the subjective probability
brings the diversity of a market environment to scientific research, and complicates analyses by including models of the personal beliefs in a human mind as well as models of the external world.
Where subjective probability
assessments are appropriate, the potential for heuristics to affect judgment does not mean we should seek some other assessment method.
theory allows us to speak of the likelihood of a single event.
Likewise, 10 estimates of subjective probability
(5 for gains, 5 for losses) were derived from the Probability Experiment.
This is known as subjective probability
because it changes depending on the current state of knowledge of the individual making the assessment.
This reinterpretation led de Finetti to formulate the principle of "reduction to exchangeability" in order to eliminate the "nebulous" "metaphysical" concepts of objective probability and independence (essential in the formulation of the law of large numbers and of the limit central theorem) precisely in favour of the subjective probability