If combined with an actuarial estimation of the likelihood of various threats, this methodology can be used to create an exceedance probability curve
for loss estimation and rate-setting.
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With available information or more funding to invest in estimating hazard probabilities, an exceedance probability curve
can be obtained to estimate the probability of occurrence of different intensities of the hazard at a given location.
The method usually employed in drainage projects to obtain a rainfall time distribution uses the 50% probability curve
(P50), using the values for type I and type IV rainfall events, as represented in Figure 5.
Table 3 shows initial data array used for plotting probability curve
for a certain profit level.
To illustrate the usefulness of the modal shift modelling exercise in urban road transport management, the developed aggregate modal shift model (involving all trips for different purposes) considering travel-time difference as the influencing variable was used to develop a modal shift probability curve
A unique failure frequency probability curve
can be created for each asset class.
What you need to tell them for an estimate like this, and for all your estimates, is that there's a zero percent probability that you will actually get it done in that time, that such a guess is only the beginning of the probability curve
If the number of excavated anomalies is increased to 200--with 160 anomalies within tolerance--then the best estimate of the accuracy remains at [+ or -] 10% NWT 80%, but the confidence of that estimate is much higher, as indicated by the narrowing of the dark blue probability curve
in Figure 7.
It can be seen that the 15 percent iso-shortfall probability curve
is close to the curve representing fair contracts.
For example, the authors explain how to construct an "exceedance probability curve
," which "specifies the probabilities that a certain level of losses will be exceeded.
If you selected three lists as winners from an eight-list test, the odds are great that those lists "happened to" come in at the top end of the probability curve
the first time and will do less well on the remail.