personal probability

per·son·al prob·a·bil·i·ty

an idiosyncratic judgment about the outcome of an event; it may include evidence too subtle to be disposed of in a subjective probability.

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References in periodicals archive ?

Risk perceptions were operationalized by asking participants if they worry about EVD ("yes" or "no") and how they perceive their personal probability of acquiring EVD in the following 9 scenarios: at work, in public transport, in public places, at an airport in Germany, as a patient in a hospital in Germany, at a doctor's office in Germany, during travel to affected countries, by food imported from West African countries, or by other products originating in West Africa.

Ebola risk perception in Germany, 2014

He took certain rules about "rational decision making" as axiomatic, and deduced personal probability and Bayes rules from these.

God, ants and Thomas Bayes

So, given two theories T and T[prime] such that T [satisfies] T[prime] and given a rational personal probability function [P.

Confirmation, explanation, and logical strength

He tells us that chance is reasonable personal probability, but what could be more reasonable than adjusting your belief about the 'chance' of heads at the next throw to the number observed so far?

Theories of probability

A Bayesian statistical inference depends only on your personal probability for E, given H, and not on whether this value rests entirely on objective probabilities.

The virtues of randomization

Personalist Bayesians hold that the theory of personal probability supplies the logical framework within which uncertain inferences from empirical data are made.

Bayesian conditionalization and probability kinematics

For if the probability of heads occurring is greater when the treatment is present tha when it is not, then, so Papineau claims, the personal probability that T causally influences H must be 1.