personal probability


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per·son·al prob·a·bil·i·ty

an idiosyncratic judgment about the outcome of an event; it may include evidence too subtle to be disposed of in a subjective probability.
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Risk perceptions were operationalized by asking participants if they worry about EVD ("yes" or "no") and how they perceive their personal probability of acquiring EVD in the following 9 scenarios: at work, in public transport, in public places, at an airport in Germany, as a patient in a hospital in Germany, at a doctor's office in Germany, during travel to affected countries, by food imported from West African countries, or by other products originating in West Africa.
He took certain rules about "rational decision making" as axiomatic, and deduced personal probability and Bayes rules from these.
So, given two theories T and T[prime] such that T [satisfies] T[prime] and given a rational personal probability function [P.
He tells us that chance is reasonable personal probability, but what could be more reasonable than adjusting your belief about the 'chance' of heads at the next throw to the number observed so far?
A Bayesian statistical inference depends only on your personal probability for E, given H, and not on whether this value rests entirely on objective probabilities.
Personalist Bayesians hold that the theory of personal probability supplies the logical framework within which uncertain inferences from empirical data are made.
For if the probability of heads occurring is greater when the treatment is present tha when it is not, then, so Papineau claims, the personal probability that T causally influences H must be 1.

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