normally base their forecasts on straight-forward logic that is easily reproducible and that usually provides quantitative results.
The NIPA profits extrapolator
, which is based on financial accounting, is inconsistent with the tax-based portion of corporate expenses that result from the exercise of stock options.
for services may well have contributed to the tendency of the early GDP estimates to understate the decline in GDP during contractions and the increase during the early stages of expansions (Fixler and Grimm 2002).
Interpolators and extrapolators
are based on shipments and inventory-change data from the Bureau of the Census Annual Survey of Manufacturers and the 1996 annual input-output tables.
BLS has recently completed research into performing the extrapolation with various time series modeling techniques, including regression and ARIMA models, as a substitute for the UI-universe-based extrapolators
currently used, and found some improvement in results.
However, the review may also consider the latest tabulations of the benchmark UI data for past quarters and how well the extrapolators
have tracked them, as well as other related indicators, such as tax collections data from the Treasury Department or movements in the Labor Department's Employment Cost Index.
for these estimates are prepared using a wide array of source data, including surveys from the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other public and private sources.
Sources and Methods for the Quarterly and Annual Estimates of State Personal Income Components Extrapolators Extrapolators
Annual for for second estimates preliminary quarterly quarterly estimates and estimates interpolators for revised quarterly estimates Wage and salary disbursements by industry: (1) Farms Trend extra- Trend extra- Economic polation (2) polation (2) Research Service (ERS)/U.
Principal Sources of Data for Value-Added Extrapolators
Component of gross domestic income Major source data Compensation of employees, paid Wages and salary For most private industries, federal accruals (1) government civilians, and state and local government, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) tabulations from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (OCEW) for 2008-2010.