aegypti mosquito, strongly suggests that the major factor driving the exponential increase of the epidemic curve
of arboviruses in naive populations is the transmission efficiency of the vector.
Caption: Figure 1: Epidemic curves
for age (a) and cohort (b) dimensions.
No differences in new infected cases at peak epidemic curve
or total infected cases were observed for different intervention activation times (Figures 11(a) and 11(b)).
A significant drop in the number of laboratory-confirmed cases during the latter half of the second wave is obvious in the epidemic curve
, and may have affected the strength of the measured association.
began on May 18, 2007 and reached at peak on June 6, 2007 after that it declined.
Estimated cases prevented by a vaccination program (by population subgroup, at specific points in time, Phase 2+) = Doses administered (using the estimates from the 2 weeks prior to a specific date) x probability of not having had a prior clinical or subclinical infection (based on Interim epidemic curve
, Equation 1b) x probability of having a future clinical infection (based on Interim epidemic curve
, Equation 1b) x vaccine effectiveness
The epidemic curve
for Taiwan reveals the very rapid rise in cases resulting from the hospital outbreak.
The epidemic curve
peaked in the first week of May, which was 1 week after molecular diagnosis of ZIKV in 8 patients residing ~50 km from Salvador and during a period of intense media coverage of the outbreak (Figure) (6).
Thus, the effect of these changes on the shape of the epidemic curve
We assumed that the epidemic curve
of exanthematous illness was representative of the epidemic curve
of Zika virus infection and that the epidemic curve
for the city of Salvador could be extrapolated to Bahia State.
Seasonal variation of morality rate could also partially explain the excess deaths; however, the strong correlation between the crude mortality rates and the epidemic curve
suggest a true association between the excess deaths and the peak of the epidemic.
Although no obvious source of norovirus was determined, the epidemic curve
and laboratory data were consistent with a single contamination event such as fecal incontinence that occurred on either Friday night or Saturday morning.