He finds that as important as these were, they had little impact on an endogenous cycle
driven primarily by profitability.
A property market is more likely to have a long-run endogenous cycle
when supply is more elastic than demand, when there are long lags in the delivery of new space, when there are high rates of physical or economic obsolescence, and when the underlying demand for space is fast growing.
In particular, I employ a structural time series (STS) or unobserved components methodology which allows for a direct empirical test of endogenous cycle theory against stochastic alternatives and/or mixed stochastic-endogenous models.
The damping factor, [Rho], is at the heart of statistical tests for an endogenous cycle. The stationarity conditions on the AR(p) polynomial in the TS and DS specifications require that the estimation techniques employed restrict [Rho] such that [Rho] [less than or equal to] 1.
To qualify as an endogenous cycle
theory in Dore's system, a theory (or the associated model) must be able to generate limit cycles--defined to be convergence to bounded motion in the phase portrait of a primary variable.
I show that this model exhibits a very natural equilibrium indeterminacy that gives rise to endogenous cycles
driven by self-fulfilling beliefs in credit market conditions (sunspot shocks).
Night owls' endogenous cycles
typically run slightly longer, and morning people may cycle short of 24 hours.
The model produces endogenous cycles
, countercyclical variation in risk premia, and only a very modest degree of predictability in consumption and dividend growth as observed in the data.
In general, features able to generate endogenous cycles
are by their very nature likely to reinforce the propagation mechanism of a model hit by exogenous shocks.
In general, when referring to circadian rhythms we are speaking of endogenous cycles
of activity, both biologic and behavioral, that occur over a 24-hour period.
Still, the welfare implications of seasonal cycles are far from settled.(14) They may have no interesting welfare consequences, and therefore may not be associated with interesting policy issues: this is the case in seasonal real business cycle models, since all fluctuations are efficient responses to changes in preferences and technology.(15) But seasonal fluctuations may be examples of endogenous cycles
, as Robert E.
Among economists studying the business cycle, these tools are used to address questions such as whether cyclical movements in macroeconomic time series are the damped oscillations of a stable system reacting to exogenous, stochastic shocks, or are the result of endogenous cycles
in a nonlinear system.