He finds that as important as these were, they had little impact on an endogenous cycle
driven primarily by profitability.
In particular, I employ a structural time series (STS) or unobserved components methodology which allows for a direct empirical test of endogenous cycle theory against stochastic alternatives and/or mixed stochastic-endogenous models.
Thus the key issue in testing for an endogenous cycle is restricted to not whether [Rho] = 1 or [Rho] [not equal to] 1, but is rather the degree of damping.
A deterministic trend or a stochastic trend plus an endogenous cycle are evidence against the TS and DS hypotheses.
To make such an assessment operational, it is necessary to decompose the estimated cycle, [Mathematical Expression Omitted], in each time period into three components: 1) the pure endogenous cycle, EC; 2) the pure stochastic cycle, SC; and 3) the mixed endogenous-stochastic cycle, MC.
To qualify as an endogenous cycle theory in Dore's system, a theory (or the associated model) must be able to generate limit cycles--defined to be convergence to bounded motion in the phase portrait of a primary variable.
But when the time comes to discuss the endogenous cycle theories, more set-up is required and in chapter eight we find ourselves dealing with springs and oscillators and perhaps wondering about redundant mechanics.
Night owls' endogenous cycles
typically run slightly longer, and morning people may cycle short of 24 hours.
The model produces endogenous cycles
, countercyclical variation in risk premia, and only a very modest degree of predictability in consumption and dividend growth as observed in the data.
In general, when referring to circadian rhythms we are speaking of endogenous cycles
of activity, both biologic and behavioral, that occur over a 24-hour period.
15) But seasonal fluctuations may be examples of endogenous cycles
, as Robert E.
Among economists studying the business cycle, these tools are used to address questions such as whether cyclical movements in macroeconomic time series are the damped oscillations of a stable system reacting to exogenous, stochastic shocks, or are the result of endogenous cycles
in a nonlinear system.