Myside bias," or confirmation bias
in the psychology books, is the tendency to ignore opinions that are contrary to your own.
But this time with the clear purpose of avoiding confirmation bias
(8) and keeping in mind, as Feynman argued, that "the first principle [of science] is that you must not fool yourself--and [yet] you are the easiest person to fool" (9).
However, there seems to be an increase in both the production and velocity of behavioral economic topics, books, and presentations as of late, or, of course, I could be suffering from what is called confirmation bias
in that I am now seeing this stuff everywhere.
We know about confirmation bias
as the ability to glean what we want from the facts.
The four are as follows:" narrow framing, which is the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, so we see them in binary terms"; confirmation bias
, which he describes as "our normal habit in life to develop a quick belief about a situation and then seek out information that bolsters our belief"; "short-term emotion"; and finally, overconfidence.
Being aware of this tendency towards confirmation bias
helps to keep it in check.
is our human bias towards seeing "proof" of what we believe.
results when people selectively focus on information that reinforces preexisting ideas, thus resulting in overestimating the influence of systematic factors (like an imposed treatment) and underestimating influence of alternative explanations, including chance.
is the tendency for decision-makers to seek or interpret evidence in ways that support preexisting beliefs or expectations.
In attempting to draw conclusions from statistics, it's important to ask if the data really show something, or allow us to experience confirmation bias
or to draw false correlations.
Falling prey to confirmation bias
, as it is known, is especially easy online because our social apps work by putting us together with people who share most of our opinions.
Among the biggest obstacles to good thinking is what we psychologists call 'the confirmation bias