actuarial risk assessment

actuarial risk assessment

A statistical method of estimating the risk of a particular event’s occurrence—e.g., the risk of a sexual offender committing a new sexual offence.

Actuarial methods are touted as more accurate than clinical judgement alone. One group that evaluated ARA instruments concluded they cannot be used to estimate an individual's risk for future violence with any reasonable degree of certainty and should be used with great caution or not at all.

Actuarial Risk Assessment

A term of art referring to an objective method of estimating a sexual offender's risk for committing a new sexual offence. In this regard, actuarial methods are regarded as more accurate than those based on clinical judgement alone.
References in periodicals archive ?
Actuarial risk assessment, in other words, has revealed the racial
Their topics include human dangerousness and the legacy of fear management, an introduction to violence risk assessment with sex offenders, developing and evaluating actuarial risk assessment instruments, the importance of theory in assessing risk, and recommendation on science and forensic practice.
An agency which had embraced advising, assisting and befriending its service users was undergoing a perceptible shift towards a culture which privileged compliance, enforcement and actuarial risk assessment. To illuminate and enhance our understanding of the range of factors which have influenced this process, George Mair and Judith Rumgay have compiled and edited an essential collection of 'key readings' and seminal texts on probation.
(11.) At least twelve states have integrated or are currently integrating some form of actuarial risk assessment into sentencing throughout the state pursuant to legislation, state sentencing commission policy, or state supreme court decision.
* To compare the nationally recommended AWA classification tiers with actuarial risk assessment instruments in their respective abilities to identify high-risk individuals and recidivists;
After the three authors provide an overview of how to use high-quality research to improve the practice of child protective services, other experts explore areas that identify young maltreated children with developmental delays, intimate partner violence in the child welfare system, actuarial risk assessment, the current status of practice and opportunities for improving parent training for families in child welfare.
Table 1 Examples of actuarial risk assessment instruments (ARAIs) ARAI Risk assessed HCR-20(9) Violence in psychiatric populations, such as Formerly hospitalized patients Classification Of Violence Violence by civil psychiatric patients Risk (COVR) following discharge into the community Violence Risk Assessment Violent recidivism by formerly incarcerated Guide (VRAG) offenders Static-99 Recidivism by sex offenders HCR-20's pros and cons
Actuarial risk assessment instruments, such as the VRAG, may primarily function as a tool to sort low-risk individuals from high-risk individuals on the group level (see also Sjostedt & Langstrom, 2002).
Internationally, child protection systems favoured actuarial risk assessment tools to enhance certainty around risk assessment practice.
This law is unique, however, in that Virginia was the first state to incorporate a designated structured actuarial risk assessment instrument in its procedures (Monahan, 2006).
And he added: "I also have very strong views about the actuarial risk assessment techniques which are used to analyse offenders.