subjective probability

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sub·jec·tive prob·a·bil·i·ty

a fair statement of the odds that a rational, well-informed person would give or take for the outcome of an experiment. The experiment may be unique and not rationally understood (precluding both theoretically sound predication and empiric experience). The formulation is applicable to experiments that have been carried out but the outcome unknown. (For instance, a certain statement about the gender of the fetus early in pregnancy is established but perhaps not accessible until amniocentesis can be done.) Unlike personal probably, the subjective probability should be the same from all competent counselors in possession of the same evidence.


the basis of statistics. The relative frequency of occurrence of a specific event as the outcome of an experiment when the experiment is conducted randomly on very many occasions. The probability of the event occurring is the number of times it did occur divided by the number of times that it could have occurred. Defined as:$$\hbox{p}={\hbox{x}\over (\hbox{x+y})$$

p = probability, x = positive outcomes, y = negative outcomes.
prior probability
estimation of the probability that a particular phenomenon or character will appear before putting the patient to the test, e.g. testing the probable productivity of a patient by testing its forebears.
subjective probability
the measure of the assessor's belief in the probability of a proposition being correct.


perceived only by one examiner and not necessarily by any other examiner.

subjective probability
see subjective probability.
References in periodicals archive ?
Given the features of the current pension regimes, we are particularly interested in studying how the subjective probabilities correlate with individual characteristics (such as age and occupation) that should influence pension uncertainty.
Upon expanding the measure into a complete scale of probabilities from 0 to 1 and postulating the usual logical operators, subjective probabilities follow most of the rules of frequentist probabilities.
Questions eliciting the subjective probabilities of major-specific outcomes are based on the use of percentages.
However, there is sufficient evidence from a LR test comparing models (9) and (10) to suggest that the model incorporating the three PP factors and the subjective probabilities of bettors (revealed as odds) contains significantly more valuable information for predicting winners than the model that simply incorporates the subjective probabilities of bettors (LR = 19.
Likewise, since ownership of an equal number of Blues and Greens gives a sure gain of 10,000 francs times the pairs of certificates owned, in equilibrium the sum of prices of Blue and Green certificates should equal 10,000 francs, irrespective of whether agents form subjective probabilities that differ from the objective probabilities of the risky certificates.
Subjective probabilities represent uncertainty; vagueness-related partial beliefs involve rather irresolvable ambivalence reflecting a range wherein the concept neither determinately applies nor determinately fails to apply.
A series of subjective probabilities is said to be calibrated if, grouping together all events with subjective probability near p, the proportion of them actually found to occur is [approximately equal to] p.
Deutsch (1973) proposed that decisions to act trustingly could be accounted for by understanding the relative strengths of positive and negative motivational consequences (outcomes) that would derive from choices in an ambiguous situation and the subjective probabilities that those consequences would actually occur.
We review the psychological evidence supporting the common use of these heuristics in estimating subjective probabilities.
These assumptions are probably justified in normal cases by the difficulty of acquiring data about subjective probabilities and of formulating a regulatory response tailored to individuals' misperception of risks.
3] of annual average reduction--by assigning subjective probabilities to values derived using both methods.

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