subjective probability

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sub·jec·tive prob·a·bil·i·ty

a fair statement of the odds that a rational, well-informed person would give or take for the outcome of an experiment. The experiment may be unique and not rationally understood (precluding both theoretically sound predication and empiric experience). The formulation is applicable to experiments that have been carried out but the outcome unknown. (For instance, a certain statement about the gender of the fetus early in pregnancy is established but perhaps not accessible until amniocentesis can be done.) Unlike personal probably, the subjective probability should be the same from all competent counselors in possession of the same evidence.


the basis of statistics. The relative frequency of occurrence of a specific event as the outcome of an experiment when the experiment is conducted randomly on very many occasions. The probability of the event occurring is the number of times it did occur divided by the number of times that it could have occurred. Defined as:$$\hbox{p}={\hbox{x}\over (\hbox{x+y})$$

p = probability, x = positive outcomes, y = negative outcomes.
prior probability
estimation of the probability that a particular phenomenon or character will appear before putting the patient to the test, e.g. testing the probable productivity of a patient by testing its forebears.
subjective probability
the measure of the assessor's belief in the probability of a proposition being correct.


perceived only by one examiner and not necessarily by any other examiner.

subjective probability
see subjective probability.
References in periodicals archive ?
14) What is less well understood is that a world of complete markets is isomorphic to a world in which subjective probabilities can be assigned to all states of the world.
The approach is a way of emphasizing the relationship between useful subjective probabilities and experimental probabilities.
Given the features of the current pension regimes, we are particularly interested in studying how the subjective probabilities correlate with individual characteristics (such as age and occupation) that should influence pension uncertainty.
Upon expanding the measure into a complete scale of probabilities from 0 to 1 and postulating the usual logical operators, subjective probabilities follow most of the rules of frequentist probabilities.
Questions eliciting the subjective probabilities of major-specific outcomes are based on the use of percentages.
Note that Good is saying merely that all probabilities can be interpreted as subjective probabilities, not that all probabilities must be interpreted as subjective probabilities.
As discussed in the previous section, from a subjetivist interpretation, this result justifies the reasons that lead to associate -inteasubjectively- the probability of certain events to the frequency observed in similar events, replacing the unknown objective probabilities and the concept of independence by subjective probabilities and exchangeability (23).
These estimates of subjective probabilities differ systematically from the in-sample distribution of game outcomes.
in Teacher Preparation (Frederic Gourdeau) [Presented in both French and English]; (11) On the Origins of Dynamic Number in the Breakdown of Structural, Metaphoric, and Historic Conceptions of Human Mathematics (Nicholas Jackiw and Nathalie Sinclair); (12) Analysis of Resources Mobilized by a Teacher and Researcher in Designing/Experimenting/Reflecting Upon Modelling Sequences Based on Elementary Combinatorics and Aimed at Introducing 7th Graders to Modelling (Souleymane Barry); (13) Being (Almost) a Mathematician: Teacher Identity Formation in Post-Secondary Mathematics (Mary Beisiegel); (14) Subjective Probabilities Derived from the Perceived Randomness of Sequences of Outcomes (Egan J.
Referring to mistakes such as the assessment about Himalayan glaciers, the review noted that such recommendations that involved subjective probabilities should be based on the principle of " high agreement, much evidence.
More specifically, the subjective probabilities inherent in odds and associated with particular information features (for example, a horse's PP) can be compared with the objective probability of success (as revealed, ex post, by race outcomes).

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