Since the February 2005 release of the Hirsch report, two events have underlined suspicions of an imminent oil peak
. In November 2005, the Kuwaiti oil ministry announced that the Burgan oil field--the second largest in the world--had peaked at 1.7 million barrels per day.
When will oil peak
? A growing body of oil company geologists, oil executives, and investment bankers, including the influential American geologist L.F.
Until now, many oil analysts have argued that advances in technology enabling more oil to be pumped out of old wells and new oil finds will delay the oil peak
for some time to come.
"Peak Oil" or "oil peak
" is a popular expression to describe the point in time when oil extraction and production naturally start to decline.
There may not be an "oil weapon" of the kind Adelman describes, but there certainly will be an "oil peak
" compounded by "oil-import uncertainty." Becoming less dependent on oil imports will be necessary eventually.
There is a vast literature on this so-called "Oil Peak
" issue but in summary about the only body of opposition to the Peak theory is from the American Petroleum Institute and the US Geological Survey, both institutions with obvious political bias.
petroleum consumption, so an imminent oil peak
and sharp decline could cause a worldwide recession.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) agrees: "We think that even if we don't discover any more oil, we won't reach the oil peak
until 2032," says its chief economist, Fatih Birol.
Pessimists have been predicting an oil peak
and associated mayhem since the late 1880s, and thus far the industry has proven them spectacularly wrong.
On the other hand, oil peak
predictions rely on a proven historical-record methodology which employs actual data rather than supposition.
Irrespective of military or ethical considerations, it would simply lead to a higher oil peak
and a steeper subsequent decline, making a bad situation worse.
The fourth quarter usually sees annual demand for oil peak
, with a possible market recovery hinging on how that helps reduce excess oil stockpiled globally, said Kuwaiti analyst Mohammed Al-Shatti.