While the volume-cost relationships implied by the
experience curve have been documented for some industries, particularly commodity-type products, their general applicability has not been substantiated.
Pressures for local responsiveness imply that it may not be possible for a firm to realize the full benefits from
experience curve and location economies.
For the horizontal axis, the
experience curve requires an initial estimate of the cumulative industry shipments up to the first data point available.
The
Experience Curve indicates the next boom in Internet application usage, following a mini-boom in 2006-2008, will occur from 2012/13 onward.
Extrapolation of historical integrated circuit
experience curves showing the unlikelihood of RFID chips at less than one cent selling price at realistic volumes.
They discuss a number of issues and hazards associated with using
experience curves, and whether they can be used to quantify improvements in energy efficiency--and provide recommendations for how
experience curves could be used.
Hence it will be fine to incorporate learning or
experience curves in a subsequent research.
Under the strictest definition,
experience curves measure how unit product cost changes with cumulative output, manufacturing progress functions relate unit manufacturing cost with cumulative output, and learning curves relate unit direct labor hours with cumulative output.
It will also be a period of enormous foundation-learning where business models will be refined, infrastructure will be created,
experience curves will be scaled and consumer expectations will be shaped.
Both learning and
experience curves are still widely used, especially in the aerospace, defense, and electronics industries.
Such individual experiences are confirmed statistically in the learning or
experience curves used in operations research.
25 Forecasting a new technology -
Experience Curves and Progress Ratios (PR)
