demographic transition

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demographic transition

a theory of demography which states that, as a nation industrializes, it goes through a series of populational changes, starting with a decline in infant and adult mortality and followed later by a reduction in birth rate. The time lag between the decline in deaths and births produces a rapid population growth in ‘developing’ nations. In ‘developed’ nations births and deaths become approximately equal, giving a stable population structure.
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A companion to the demographic transition model, termed the health or epidemiological transition, describes long-term shifts in mortality from "pestilence and famines" to "degenerative and human-made diseases" (Young and Bjerregaard, 2008:15).
Fertility has declined in places where neither modern contraception nor the demographic transition model can account for the trend, such as Sudan, Burma, and Bangladesh, and historically in Yap, Tikopia, and many other pre-modern, but now industrialized, countries.
The conventional analysis of population dynamics includes a simple demographic transition model (DTM), which correlates birth and death rates with different phases of societal development.