Delphi method


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An iterative group judgement technique in which a central source forwards surveys or questionnaires to isolated, anonymous—to each other—participants whose responses are collated/summarised and recirculated to the participants in multiple rounds for further modification/critique, producing a final group response

Delphi method

(del'fi?) [After the oracle of Apollo at Delphi] See: method

Delphi method

The polling of experts in a field to reach consensus, make decisions, or disseminate knowledge. Individual specialists are organized in a virtual group, i.e., one that does not meet face-to-face in one place. They are each given a standard set of questions to answer or review. Their responses are tallied by the group's organizers, and then the preliminary data analysis is shared with all members of the group for further comments and revisions. A final report summarizing the opinions of the group is drafted. The Delphi method is one means of publishing criteria for standards of care or the state of the art of a particular discipline in health care.
See also: method
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Q23 How satisfied are you with the overall performance (considering trade-offs between accuracy, ease of use, cost, and time) of the forecasting techniques below (scaling from "very dissatisfied" to "very satisfied" on a 5-point scale?: ARIMA (Box Jenkins) (1) Causal Multiple Regression (2) Data Mining (3) Delphi method (4) Holt's exponential smoothing (5) How to combine forecasts (6) Jury of executive opinions (7) Linear regression trends (8) Moving averages (9) Naive method (10) Sales force composite (11) Simple exponential smoothing (12) Text Mining (13) Time series decomposition (14) Winters' exponential smoothing (15) Other: (16)
Stage 2: Refining and Identifying the Factors Influencing WCBS by Using the Modified Delphi Method
As a result of the construction of the "tree", based on the results of the expert survey carried out using the Delphi method, the following conclusions can be drawn:
The Delphi method is characterized by an iterative process of questioning and controlled feedback to generate consensus among an expert panel (Linstone & Turoff, 1975).
On the basis of Fuzzy Delphi method, Chen (2014) studied mobile ads setup.
* Application of the Delphi method for comprehensive identification of sustainability indicators together with a group of experts from the tourism sector
The results obtained in primary research were verified using the Delphi method. The Delphi method is considered as the method of collecting expert views through repeated interviews with controlled feedback.
The Delphi method seeks to aggregate independent perspectives from a diverse group.
In general, the Delphi method relies on the assumption that, unlike individual forecasts, group-based forecasts provide greater accuracy.
Trying the Delphi Method. The Delphi method has long been advocated in literature about public-sector revenue forecasting, but it can be used for other decision-making situations as well.