Bayes' theorem

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Related to Bayesian updating: Bayesian analysis, Bayesian approach

Bayes’ theorem

Simplistically, Bayes’ theorem is a formula which allows one to find the probability that an event occurred as the result of a particular previous event. It is often used in medicine to determine the mathematical relationship between the probability that an individual has a disease, X, before the test is run, to the probability that the individual has the disease after the test result is known.

theorem

(the'o-rem) [Gr. theorema, principle arrived at by speculation]

A proposition that can be proved by use of logic, or by argument, from information previously accepted as being valid.

Bayes' theorem

See: Bayes' theorem.

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References in periodicals archive ?

The posterior PDF of the model parameter is obtained using Bayesian updating, implemented using the MCMC algorithms.

MCMC-Based Fatigue Crack Growth Prediction on 2024-T6 Aluminum Alloy

For this special case, the sequential Bayesian updating process on nearest neighbors starts from nearest neighbor [i.sub.1]([u.sub.1]) and ends at nearest neighbor [i.sub.m]([u.sub.m]) in a Markov-type neighborhood around the location [u.sub.0] being estimated (see Figure 1(b) as an example).

Updating categorical soil maps using limited survey data by Bayesian Markov chain cosimulation

When it is assumed that the aftermarket trading price follows a Bayesian updating process, this study shows that underpricing has both positive and negative impacts on the entrepreneur's final wealth.

How does underpricing increase owners' wealth in the initial public offering market?

When Bayesian updating was applied without the uncertainty factor, most of the weight shifted from three modes for [q.sub.net] to predominantly two modes for each net type (Fig.

Using experiments and expert judgment to model catchability of Pacific rockfishes in trawl surveys, with application to bocaccio (Sebastes paucispinis) off British Columbia

To facilitate the Bayesian updating, this function will be replaced by a family of functions [F.sub.i](y|[THETA] = [[theta].sub.k]) (k = 1, 2, ..., m), each having equal epistemic weight 1/m (Sec 4.3).

Assessment of structures subjected to accidental actions using crisp and uncertain fragility functions/Avariniu apkrovu veikiamu konstrukciju vertinimas taikant tikslias ir neapibreztas pazeidziamumo funkcijas

Employers are assumed to use Bayesian updating when forming beliefs about the ability of workers.

An experimental study of statistical discrimination by employers

If Yolanda, for example, behaves according to this view of adaptation, then she will not follow the Cournot reaction curve or sequential Bayesian updating. On the contrary, if she and Xavier selected outcome 2 in the first period, she will see that she could be better off by moving to row 3 or row 4, and that will be sufficient.

Adaptive incrementalism and complexity: experiments with two-person cooperative signaling games

The reputation of i for being the good type is denoted by [p.sup.i.sub.t+1], stemming from Bayesian updating of [p.sup.i.sub.t] after observing outputs in t.

Reputation deals: a theory of endogenous teams

The probability distribution function (pdf) given as g([center dot]) would evidence Bayesian updating if present.

Willingness-to-pay estimates using the Double-Bounded Dichotomous-Choice Contingent Valuation format: a test for validity and precision in a Bayesian format

[1996]: 'Bayesian Updating', Aristotelian Society Supplementary Volume, 70, forthcoming.

On Chihara's 'The Howson-Urbach Proofs of Bayesian Principles.' (criticism of the book 'Scientific Reasoning: the Bayesian Approach')

The CM does not have, therefore, a Bayesian updating cost.

Decision support system: use it or skip it

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