Bayesian hypothesis

Bayes·i·an hy·poth·e·sis

an array of surmised values of a parameter to be severally explored in the light of a current set of data, with logical symmetry being preserved among all. The merits of each hypothesis entertained are based on quantity, the prior probability. The probability of the data conditional on the hypothesis is computed as the conditional probability for each; the product of the two for each hypothesis is the joint probability, and the ratio of each joint probability to the sum of all the joint probabilities is the posterior probability for that hypothesis. Unlike the Neyman-Pearson test of hypotheses, the answer is a statement about the hypothesis, not about the sample conditional on the hypothesis. No hypothesis is preferred or prevails by default. The procedure may be applied recursively any number of times, as the data becomes available. [Thomas Bayes, British mathematician, 1702-1761]
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The primary purpose is to investigate and to verify the need to evaluate statistical power and inferential error rates for Bayesian hypothesis tests.
The Bayes factor is a measure of the evidence from the current study and has a key role in Bayesian hypothesis testing.
Most applications of Bayesian hypothesis tests have been for exploratory research and have not specified a criterion for acceptable evidence.
This strategy can be used to evaluate any decision-making process, including Bayesian hypothesis tests.
lens--specifically, using Bayesian hypothesis testing as a model.
Figure 4 Bayesian Hypothesis Statements State A : [mu] = [[mu].
However, Bayesian hypothesis testing should be considered where there are several competing states of different probabilities and costs.
The starting point for a Bayesian hypothesis test is the prior probability that the hypothesis of interest is true.
However, applying Bayesian analyses to simulated data indicates that these discrepancies can reflect low power and inferential errors in Bayesian hypothesis testing, particularly with diffuse prior probabilities (Kennedy, in press).
Many Bayesian analysts believe that these need no adjustments with Bayesian hypothesis tests.
In theory, Bayesian hypothesis tests start with prespecified prior probabilities, which are then updated from the data in the current experiment to produce posterior probabilities and conclusions.
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