subjective probability


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sub·jec·tive prob·a·bil·i·ty

a fair statement of the odds that a rational, well-informed person would give or take for the outcome of an experiment. The experiment may be unique and not rationally understood (precluding both theoretically sound predication and empiric experience). The formulation is applicable to experiments that have been carried out but the outcome unknown. (For instance, a certain statement about the gender of the fetus early in pregnancy is established but perhaps not accessible until amniocentesis can be done.) Unlike personal probably, the subjective probability should be the same from all competent counselors in possession of the same evidence.

probability

the basis of statistics. The relative frequency of occurrence of a specific event as the outcome of an experiment when the experiment is conducted randomly on very many occasions. The probability of the event occurring is the number of times it did occur divided by the number of times that it could have occurred. Defined as:$$\hbox{p}={\hbox{x}\over (\hbox{x+y})$$

where
p = probability, x = positive outcomes, y = negative outcomes.
prior probability
estimation of the probability that a particular phenomenon or character will appear before putting the patient to the test, e.g. testing the probable productivity of a patient by testing its forebears.
subjective probability
the measure of the assessor's belief in the probability of a proposition being correct.

subjective

perceived only by one examiner and not necessarily by any other examiner.

subjective probability
see subjective probability.
References in periodicals archive ?
Even considering the inherent difficulties in measuring a precise subjective probability of conviction, however, the models from Part II can help gauge the general effects that entrapment strategies have upon estimates of one's subjective probability of conviction.
The formulae of these statistics are reported in the section titled "The Subjective Probability Distribution of the Replacement Rate" in the Appendix.
When forming subjective probability estimates of a horse's chance of winning, it is conceivable that bettors rely on data concerning PP bias from the previous year.
We found a positive association between the person's subjective probability of living 10 more years and use of recommended care, and between self-assessed control of diabetes and health.
In this paper we have evaluated the subjective probability forecasts for real GDP declines during 1968-2004.
RH is used when an agent must update a subjective probability with new information.
The use of subjective probability theory in evidentiary analysis does not presuppose that fact-finders actually do, or even should, assess probabilities numerically or consciously at all.
The relationship between these variables and their varying impacts gives rise to a subjective probability distribution.
The perception of insecurity did vary substantially by race, with the subjective probability of job loss among blacks roughly double that of whites.
ii) The specification of the subjective probability distribution; this will take the form of a probability tree (in reality, an infinite dimensional one) which specifies for each period the probability distribution for the parameter or expected variable of interest conditional on past history.

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