Hobbs was back in the winner's enclosure half an hour later after the conditional riders' handicap hurdle, although this time it was for a share of first place with Sykes and Ciaran Gethings dead-heating with the Jonjo O'Neilltrained Optimistic Bias
, who was ridden by Paddy Cowley.
The existence of optimistic bias
has spanned administrations.
To test my hypotheses that investigate the sources of the optimistic bias
documented in the previous section, I employ two sets of multivariate analyses.
Direct-to-Consumer Advertising and Consumers' Optimistic Bias
About the Further Risk of Depression: The Moderating Role of Advertising Skepticism.
In one study, An Assessment of Change in Risk Perception and Optimistic Bias
for Hurricanes among Gulf Coast Residents, Craig Trumbo of Colorado State University and four other colleagues evaluated the level of concern about hurricanes following the 2-year quiescent period after Hurricane Katrina.
-- The belief that everything will be alright despite the fact that people take health risks
The planning fallacy is "only one of the manifestations of a pervasive optimistic bias
," he writes, which "may well be the most significant of the cognitive biases.
Executives exhibiting optimistic bias
had less performance-based pay, similar to prior research revealing that managers who have less performance-based pay have a tendency to be more overconfident.
Because it would be costly for traders in efficient markets to let preferences over candidates influence holdings, this suggests the existence of optimistic bias
also when the bias is costly.
The optimistic bias
refers to the tendency for people to believe that they are more likely to experience positive events and less likely to experience negative events.
On depressive realism and optimistic bias
see, in addition to Alloy and Abramson, Taylor (whose book argues for the existence and adaptive function of optimistic illusions in healthy minds; she treats depressive realism on 212-15), Seligman, Learned Optimism 107-15.
Suppose the project-evaluation team sees that there is an optimistic bias
in the forecast of unit sales.