However, there seems to be an increase in both the production and velocity of behavioral economic topics, books, and presentations as of late, or, of course, I could be suffering from what is called confirmation bias
in that I am now seeing this stuff everywhere.
We know about confirmation bias
as the ability to glean what we want from the facts.
He would have relished the work of psychologists showing that we have a confirmation bias
(we favor and remember information that supports, rather than contradicts, our beliefs); that we systematically overestimate the accuracy of our beliefs (the overconfidence effect); and that we have a propensity to respond to the plight of a single identifiable individual rather than a large number of people about whom we have only statistical information.
Beware of cognitive biases, particularly confirmation bias
The four are as follows:" narrow framing, which is the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, so we see them in binary terms"; confirmation bias
, which he describes as "our normal habit in life to develop a quick belief about a situation and then seek out information that bolsters our belief"; "short-term emotion"; and finally, overconfidence.
Being aware of this tendency towards confirmation bias
helps to keep it in check.
is our human bias towards seeing "proof" of what we believe.
The faith of many people, Brain contends, is informed by anecdotal evidence, superstition, confirmation bias
, double-think, delusion, regression fallacy, groupthink, compartmentalization, and the "yes-no-wait" fallacy.
Drawing from psychological theory on schematic information processing, confirmation bias
, and causal attributions, we predict that rape culture influences juror decision making in sexual assault trials via an integrated three-stage process whereby (a) rape culture consistent cognitive schemas and scripts are activated, (b) confirmation bias
affects information processing, and (c) different types of attributions determine jurors' final judgments.
is the tendency for decision-makers to seek or interpret evidence in ways that support preexisting beliefs or expectations.
results when people selectively focus on information that reinforces preexisting ideas, thus resulting in overestimating the influence of systematic factors (like an imposed treatment) and underestimating influence of alternative explanations, including chance.
In attempting to draw conclusions from statistics, it's important to ask if the data really show something, or allow us to experience confirmation bias
or to draw false correlations.