Bayes·i·an hy·poth·e·sis

an array of surmised values of a parameter to be severally explored in the light of a current set of data, with logical symmetry being preserved among all. The merits of each hypothesis entertained are based on quantity, the prior probability. The probability of the data conditional on the hypothesis is computed as the conditional probability for each; the product of the two for each hypothesis is the joint probability, and the ratio of each joint probability to the sum of all the joint probabilities is the posterior probability for that hypothesis. Unlike the Neyman-Pearson test of hypotheses, the answer is a statement about the hypothesis, not about the sample conditional on the hypothesis. No hypothesis is preferred or prevails by default. The procedure may be applied recursively any number of times, as the data becomes available. [Thomas Bayes, British mathematician, 1702-1761]

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References in periodicals archive

He also addresses the role of hypothesis testing in the evaluation of theories, the relationship between hypothesis tests and confidence intervals, and the role of prior knowledge in Bayesian estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing.

Hypothesis Testing and Model Selection in the Social Sciences

The primary purpose is to investigate and to verify the need to evaluate statistical power and inferential error rates for Bayesian hypothesis tests.

The Bayes factor is a measure of the evidence from the current study and has a key role in Bayesian hypothesis testing.

Most applications of Bayesian hypothesis tests have been for exploratory research and have not specified a criterion for acceptable evidence.

Beware of inferential errors and low power with Bayesian analyses: power analysis is needed for confirmatory research/Attention aux erreurs inferentielles etaux faibles puissances dans les analyses bayesiennes: l'analyse de puissance est necessaire pour la recherche confirmatoire/Vorsicht vor inferenzfehlern und geringer teststarke bei bayesschen analysen: eine analyse der teststarke wird bei bestatigungsforschung benotigt ..

lens--specifically, using Bayesian hypothesis testing as a model.

system imposes a constraint on top of the standard Bayesian hypothesis

Reconceptualizing the burden of proof

Four appendixes include: (1) Panel Members Attending the Multiple Comparisons Meetings; (2) Introduction to Multiple Testing; (3) Weighting Options for Constructing Composite Domain Outcomes; and (4) The Bayesian Hypothesis Testing Framework.

Technical Methods Report: Guidelines for Multiple Testing in Impact Evaluations. NCEE 2008-4018

The author has organized the main body of his text into fourteen chapters covering specifying Bayesian models, the normal and studentAEs-t models, the Bayesian prior, assessing model quality, Bayesian hypothesis testing and the Bayes factor, Bayesian decision theory, Monte Carlo and related iterative methods, and a variety of other related subjects.

Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach, 3rd Edition

The starting point for a Bayesian hypothesis test is the prior probability that the hypothesis of interest is true.

However, applying Bayesian analyses to simulated data indicates that these discrepancies can reflect low power and inferential errors in Bayesian hypothesis testing, particularly with diffuse prior probabilities (Kennedy, in press).

Bayesian and classical hypothesis testing: practical differences for a controversial area of research/Pruebas de hipotesis bayesiana y clasica: diferencias practicas para un area de investigacion pol'emica/ Le test d'hypotheses bayesien et classique: differences pratiques dans un champ de recherche controverse/ Bayessche und klassische hypothesenprufung: praktische unterschiede fur ein kontroverses ..