Ceiling Principle

A guideline from the US National Academy of Science for calculating the odds of a false match in forensic DNA fingerprinting that arises due to racial—European, African-American, etc.—subgroups
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But even before the revision, using the ceiling principle produces impressively low random match probability figures.
The report concluded that the statistical methods used by forensic laboratories should be abandoned in favor of a more conservative approach called the ceiling principle, which produces less extreme match estimates.
Some scientists have attacked the ceiling principle as unnecessarily conservative,(17) some have said it is unclear and subject to conflicting interpretations,(18) some have defended it as a workable compromise,(19) and some have argued that it may not be conservative enough.
In one case, an FBI agent-examiner purported to follow the modified ceiling principle while computing the frequency of the defendant's DNA profile six different ways.
The NRC's new effort was prompted by a request from former FBI Director William Sessions, who wrote that debate over the ceiling principle had "created a climate of confusion for the courts.